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Middle East urea prices fell 42.4% from a second-quarter average of $693.50 per tonne to a third-quarter average of $399.20, according to the World Bank pink sheet dated October 2, 2026. Prices were around $400 in July.
Lower nitrogen fertilizer costs reduce farm input expenses and may support corn acreage economics, though the drop is a historical quarterly comparison rather than a new shock.
thetradersspread.comOct 19, 2026After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
