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Infoindustria reports that Ukrainian fertilizer exports fell in 2018 and customs imposed a 42.96% duty on Belarusian nitrogen and complex fertilizer imports from December 2018. The site also carries a general review of a difficult 2018 market.
Reduced Ukrainian fertilizer trade and higher import duties tighten regional supply modestly, with limited direct effect on feed grain prices.
After 23 past neutral trade events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.0%), and +2.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.