Japanese refiners halt Iran oil imports as waiver expiry looms

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jun 26, 2018Oil surges as U.S. pushes allies to halt imports of Iranian crude | Reuters+6.7%
• Apr 22, 2019U.S. to end all waivers on imports of Iranian oil, crude price jumps-1.1%
• Jan 12, 2026Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports | Reuters+0.7%
• Oct 11, 2019Oil rises 2% after reports of Iranian tanker attack | Reuters+0.6%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jun 26, 2018Oil surges as U.S. pushes allies to halt imports of Iranian crude | Reuters+4.4%
• Apr 22, 2019U.S. to end all waivers on imports of Iranian oil, crude price jumps+0.4%
• Jan 12, 2026Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports | Reuters+2.0%
• Oct 11, 2019Oil rises 2% after reports of Iranian tanker attack | Reuters+0.9%
• Dec 13, 2024Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran | Reuters-0.2%