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INTL FCStone economist Bill Brooks says the February WASDE projects 2019 all-milk price at $17.25/cwt, up $1.05 from 2018, and feed costs rising only slightly as higher corn offsets lower soybean prices. He estimates 2019 income over feed costs at $9.26/cwt, above 2018 but below the five-year average.
Higher projected milk prices with modestly higher feed costs improve dairy producer margins and could support herd retention, though feed costs cap the gain.
hoards.comBill BrooksMar 21, 2019After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
