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DTN analyst Todd Hultman argues that USDA projects around 955 million bushels of US soybean ending stocks for 2018-19, equal to about 23% of use and correlating with a $6 cash price. He says a possible billion bushels or more of stocks in both 2018-19 and the new crop year is the main bearish concern.
Projected record soybean surpluses point to continued pressure on soybean and meal prices, though low prices may eventually curb acreage and support the market later.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanMar 1, 2019After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
