
The European Commission published provisional anti-dumping duties on UAN imports from Russia, Trinidad and Tobago and the USA, with rates from 16.3% to 39.3% on top of existing 6.5% duties. The investigation was triggered by a complaint from Fertilizers Europe, and definitive measures are due in October.
The duties sharply cut the netbacks for US and Russian UAN producers selling into Europe, which tightens EU supply and supports nitrogen prices there. Producers may redirect volume to other markets.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.