
US farm groups are considering countervailing and anti-dumping duties on urea ammonium nitrate solutions from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago under a US International Trade Commission investigation. USDA projects fertilizer prices to rise 5% in 2022 before any tariffs.
The article notes fertilizer represents about 36% of operating costs for major US field crops.
Potential duties on UAN imports would restrict supply and raise nitrogen costs for US growers, reinforcing upward pressure on feed grain production costs.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.