◂ Event Timeline

Oct 10, 2023TRADEChina

Global tensions, market uncertainty, higher input costs drive fertilizer prices higher

AMIS October Market Monitor says fertilizer prices rose in September, driven by Indian market strength and uncertainty over Chinese exports. China reportedly asked some manufacturers to suspend urea exports after domestic prices surged, and India made an unexpected purchase tender.

WHY IT MATTERS

Any sustained cut in Chinese urea exports tightens global nitrogen supply and pushes fertilizer costs up for feed grain producers ahead of the Northern Hemisphere fall application season.

AFFECTSUrea▲

SOURCE
michiganfarmnews.comDennis Rudat, Farm News MediaOct 10, 2023

Price reaction & history

Urea▲bullishSO FAR1d -2.6%5d -1.9%20d -9.0%

After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.

Jul 14, 2025Global Fertilizer Market Brief – Price Fluctuations, Trade Shifts & Policy Focus+0.7%
Jul 23, 2021Potential Countervailing and Anti-Dumping Duties on UAN Solutions Raise Eyebrows | Farm Bureau Intel Markets | American Farm Bureau Federation-0.7%
Aug 27, 2025Brazil fertilizer imports reach record high in July amid global trade tensions — Fertilizer Daily-7.0%
May 1, 2026US buyers redirect imported fertilizer overseas as Iran war drives up global prices-11.0%
Aug 28, 2025Sticky input prices and short supplies: What's keeping fertilizer costs high? - RealAgriculture-7.5%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Urea UREA · GP ▸

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