
The EPA issued a proposal allowing year-round sale of higher-ethanol gasoline and changes to RIN credit rules, and on the same week it waived five more refineries from 2017 biofuel blending quotas. The EPA is also expected to rule on as many as 34 petitions from 2018.
The mix of ethanol-supportive proposals and refinery waivers that reduce blending obligations creates offsetting forces on corn and soybean oil demand, with the outcome depending on pending petition decisions.
After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.