Scott Berlin of the University of Illinois says US biofuel production capacity far exceeds demand under the RFS, leaving refiners with a surplus of nearly a billion gallons. Renewable diesel capacity has grown from 800 million to 5.1 billion gallons since 2021, and many planned plants have not broken ground.
Oversupply of biofuel capacity limits feedstock demand for soybean oil and corn oil, which weighs on vegetable oil and feedstock prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.