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Urea prices jumped sharply last week as weather closed the window for ammonia applications and the closure of the river system delayed shipments to northern areas. Buyers hauled over longer distances, which pushed up freight demand, and India's return to the market with a large tender added to the rally.
Ammonia prices diverged, falling in the Gulf and Southwest while rising in the east.
Urea's jump reflects a weather-driven shift to urea plus Indian import demand, which tightens nitrogen supply and raises farm input costs. Higher river freight costs add to delivered prices for buyers in northern areas.
rayfue.comApr 29, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
