
The EIA's April 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US regular gasoline averaging $2.76/gallon this summer, down from $2.85 last summer. EIA expects Brent to average $65/bbl in 2019 and WTI to trade about $8/bbl below Brent in the first half of 2019.
A lower crude oil forecast points to cheaper diesel and energy inputs, which lowers freight and processing costs for feed. Crude is also a key input to biofuel margins that affect soybean oil and corn demand.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.