
The EIA's February 2020 STEO cut its 2020 global liquids demand growth to 1.0 million b/d from 1.3 million, citing coronavirus and warm January weather. It assumes OPEC will cut crude output by 0.5 million b/d from March through May.
Libyan outages also reduce OPEC supply.
Lower demand growth and an assumed OPEC cut partly offset each other, but the weaker demand outlook is bearish for crude and diesel, which feeds into energy and freight costs for feed producers.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.