Brazil's North-Northeast anhydrous ethanol spot prices fell 450 reais per cubic meter, or 11.55%, in the week ended May 19. The decline followed a 12.72% cut in Petrobras ex-refinery gasoline prices on May 17 and a drop in Center-South ethanol prices.
Market participants use Petrobras gasoline pricing as a discount reference for ethanol.
Petrobras gasoline price cuts pull down the value of ethanol in Brazil, which can reduce demand for corn and sugar-based ethanol feedstocks and weaken the link to the broader fuel market. The effect on animal-feed commodities is limited, so the impact is modest.
After 250 past policy events, DAP moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.6% to +1.3%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.