An Explanation for Soybeans' Day-to-Day Swings

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jan 28, 2020Soybean market looking for good news | An official publication of Michigan Farm Bureau-2.3%
• May 26, 2017Soybean market described as fragile-1.9%
• Apr 7, 2025Palm and soybean oil prices fell by 4.4-5.9% amid a 14.5% drop in oil prices in two days+6.7%
• Dec 16, 2022Global recession worries chip away at corn, soybeans – The Seam-0.4%
• May 18, 2017U.S. grains: Soybeans fall as Brazilian currency dives - AgCanada-2.8%

After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 23, 2021BoE sees growing case for rate rise as inflation to stay higher for longer | Reuters+2.6%
• Aug 7, 2023Outlook for the Brazilian Real and the real economy+0.8%
• Dec 7, 2022Brazil Holds Key Rate at 13.75% as Lula’s Spending Plan Adds to Inflation Risk - Bloomberg+0.5%
• Dec 8, 2023EMERGING MARKETS-Colombian peso up after inflation data; Latam FX, stocks slip on the week-0.1%
• Nov 27, 2019BRL: Plenty of space for BCB intervention – TDS — Octa-1.7%