
The European Commission intends to apply anti-dumping tariffs on urea ammonium nitrate imports from Russia, Trinidad and Tobago and the US, with rates from 16.3% for Trinidad and Tobago to 31.9% to 39.3% for Russia. Farm groups warn the duties will be passed to farmers, with a UK price of about £250/t and a 34% tariff implying a rise of more than £80/t.
Tariffs of this scale would cut import volumes of liquid nitrogen into Europe and raise prices for farmers. The proposal supports higher UAN and urea prices in the EU market.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.