European diesel margins spiked in early May after fears that several key refineries would cut runs. The refineries were short of crude normally delivered through Russia's Druzhba pipeline.
Refinery run cuts reduce diesel output in Europe and tighten the regional market. That supports higher diesel prices and raises freight and processing costs for feed.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 22 past bullish logistics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -5.7% to +4.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.