Energy Intelligence reports that IMO 2020 sulfur limits from January 1, 2020 could sharply raise shipping costs for ultra-low-sulfur diesel moving from the Middle East and Asia to Europe. That would make Russian barrels more competitive.
Higher tanker costs for diesel shifts trade flows toward Russia and raises freight costs, a modest factor for European fuel and freight-linked feed costs.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.