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West Texas Intermediate rose more than $5 a barrel to settle near $115 on Wednesday, March 22, 2022. The rally followed news that a major Black Sea oil export terminal had halted loadings and faced weeks of disruption, with exports possibly cut by about 1 million barrels a day.
Reports of shrinking U.S. stockpiles also supported prices.
A prolonged loss of Black Sea export capacity tightens global crude supply and raises the cost of fuel and freight used across the feed chain. The stockpile draw reinforces the tightness, so the price implication is bullish for crude.
bloomberg.comJulia FanzeresMar 22, 2022After 26 past bullish logistics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.1% to +9.5%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 22 past bullish logistics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -5.7% to +4.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On March 22 a Black Sea terminal halted loadings (possibly about 1 mb/d) and US stocks shrank, lifting crude by about $5 on the end date (supply loss).
WTI rose over $5 to near $115 on March 22 after a Black Sea (CPC) terminal halted loadings and US stockpiles shrank, a direct supply shock to the rebound.
