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South Africa's meat prices recorded deflation of -1.1% in March 2019 following a ban on red meat exports after foot-and-mouth disease broke out in Limpopo. The cattle herd remains well below pre-drought levels from 2015/16 despite recent rebuilding.
The export ban increased domestic meat supply and pushed prices down, but a lifting of the ban could reverse this. Herd rebuilding limits how much supply can grow, so meat prices may rise again.
wandilesihlobo.comMay 17, 2019After 356 past disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.8% to +1.1%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 266 past disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.7%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
