
US retail meat sales jumped sharply in the week ending March 15 as shoppers stocked up during COVID-19 lockdowns. Processors diverted supply from foodservice, but the price paid to ranchers fell about 11% since January amid slaughter disruption fears.
Strong retail demand is not reaching live animal prices because packer margins and slaughter capacity are constrained, keeping pressure on cattle and hog values.
After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 69 past neutral disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.