African swine fever has spread to 26 countries since its first detection in China in 2018 and remains the leading threat to the global pig industry. China's sow herd is estimated to be down 3% to 10% from earlier months after a resurgence in the 2020-21 winter.
Grain price volatility is adding to pressure on pig production costs.
Continued ASF losses in China sustain import demand for pork and feed, while volatile grain costs squeeze producer margins.
After 69 past neutral disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.