◂ Event Timeline

Apr 29, 2019DISEASEUS

Disease causing price volatility in U.S.

Goldman Sachs analyst Adam Samuelson wrote that the rapid decline in China's swine herd from African swine fever has caused volatility in US domestic hog prices. The report was cited in an Iowa Farm Bureau note.

WHY IT MATTERS

Swings in US hog prices reflect shifting export expectations tied to China's herd losses, which affects hog margins and feed demand.

AFFECTSHOGS◆

SOURCE
iowafarmbureau.comApr 29, 2019

Price reaction & history

HOGS◆neutralSO FAR1d -1.7%5d -1.3%20d -0.1%

After 69 past neutral disease events, HOGS moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -1.6% over 20.

May 12, 2021ASF, grain price volatility add risk to pig production | Feed Strategy-0.5%
Jul 27, 2018Preparing for animal disease outbreaks-7.7%
Feb 1, 2019Disease Structural Changes-1.0%
Nov 11, 2020Long An steps up measures to control bird, pig diseases-0.6%
Jul 21, 2021Foreign Animal Disease – Page 29 – American Association of Swine Veterinarians+1.5%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

HOGS · GP ▸

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