MARS estimated EU crop yields improved 0.7% from the previous month and sit 1.2% above the five-year average, with wheat and barley up 2% and corn up 4%. Rapeseed yields were cut 1.9% month on month, and northern regions remain dry while the south had above-average rain.
Better EU yields for cereals and maize add supply comfort, while lower rapeseed yields support canola and oilseed meal prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.