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The EU's MARS crop monitoring unit raised its grain yield estimates in its May update, citing favourable rain across much of Europe. Yield gains of 14% are forecast for Romania and Bulgaria, and 3-4% for Germany and France.
Spain and Portugal are still expected to see yields about 25% below last year because of drought.
Higher EU yield estimates add to export supply and tend to weigh on wheat prices, although the Iberian drought limits the size of the bearish effect. Feed buyers in Europe may see more affordable barley and wheat supplies.
zmp.deMay 23, 2023After 334 past bearish weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
