
The euro rose about 0.5% to $1.1273 after the ECB kept rates unchanged and did not signal near-term easing, pushing back the timing of its first post-crisis rate hike. Money markets cut the odds of a euro zone rate cut by year-end to 45% from 75%.
Reduced ECB easing expectations support the euro against the dollar, which can weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices at the margin.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.