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Analysis argues that euro strength reflects more than the vanishing interest-rate gap with the US, including improved sentiment after Europe's 750 billion-euro COVID recovery fund. It suggests the ECB has no immediate cause for alarm over the currency's rise.
The euro was trading near $1.18 at the time.
Currency strength rooted in fundamentals is less likely to be reversed by policy, so a firmer euro may persist and continue to shift relative import costs for euro-zone feed buyers.
reuters.comOlga CotagaSep 5, 2020After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
