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Natural gas futures rose 5.4% on June 24 to $2.31/mmBtu as forecasts pointed to hotter weather in early July. Weather models were mixed, and the market had fallen after a larger-than-expected weekly supply increase.
The UNG fund gained 5.3%.
Hotter forecasts lift power-burn demand for gas, which can support prices in the short term. The effect on feed grains is minimal.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.