
The American Soybean Association says US soybeans have been effectively barred from China for a year, leaving a large glut. It expects the US soybean carryover by September to be the largest in over 55 years, pushing prices below growers' break-even levels.
A record carryover stock points to heavy supply and low soybean prices, which benefit soymeal buyers but hurt US growers and could shift acreage in future seasons.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.