
India's water resources minister warned that water shortages could cut food exports, since rice requires roughly 4,500 to 5,000 litres per kg. Western and southern states received below-average rainfall in the 2018 monsoon, and this year's monsoon has also been weak.
India currently holds large stocks of rice, wheat and sugar.
Water stress in India's main rice-growing regions could eventually reduce exportable surplus, which would support world rice prices. The warning is a longer-term risk rather than an immediate supply cut given current stockpiles.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.