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The World Bank's fertilizer outlook projects its Fertilizer Price Index to rise 4.8% in 2019 after a 5.4% first-quarter decline. Potash (MOP) prices are expected to climb while urea stays roughly flat and DAP falls.
Risks cited include expiring US waivers on Iranian urea sanctions and US-China trade tensions.
Potash strength raises input costs for crop producers, while flat urea and falling DAP keep nitrogen and phosphate costs soft. Iran sanctions could tighten urea supply, which is a key upside risk for nitrogen prices.
blogs.worldbank.orgJohn Baffes, Wee Chian KohJun 3, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 26 past neutral report events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
