◂ Event Timeline

Jun 4, 2019TRADEUS

U.S. soy exporters struggle with huge China export commitments in midst of trade war

Reuters reported that US soybean exporters face a heavy summer shipping schedule, with about 7 million tonnes of soybeans bought by China before talks broke down still to be delivered. Floods in the US Midwest are adding shipping delays, and cancellation would be costly for exporters.

WHY IT MATTERS

A large backlog of shipments and possible delays or renegotiated delivery dates after harvest would add supply to US soybean stocks later and could push prices down. Flood-related logistics problems add to the pressure.

AFFECTSSoybeans▼Barge Freight (St. Louis)▲

SOURCE
ctrmcenter.comDr. Gary M. VaseyJun 4, 2019

Price reaction & history

Soybeans▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.3%5d -2.3%20d +0.7%

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

Mar 22, 2024Brazil’s intrusion on US soy exports to China somewhat mimics trade-war era-1.7%
Dec 31, 2018Trade wars cost U.S., China billions of dollars each in 2018+3.3%
Nov 12, 2018U.S. soybean farmers hang on for dear life in Trump's China trade war+1.9%
Aug 1, 2018Why Soybeans Are at the Heart of the U.S.-China Trade War-1.6%
Dec 27, 2018Inside China's strategy in the soybean trade war+3.5%

Barge Freight (St. Louis)▲bullish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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Barge Freight (St. Louis) BARGE · GP ▸

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