Brazil’s intrusion on US soy exports to China somewhat mimics trade-war era

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Nov 6, 2019Panamax rates slide as trade war bites into US soybean exports to China-1.7%
• Mar 13, 2019Brazil and Canada win big from US-China trade war with record soy exports | Supply Chain Dive+2.2%
• Aug 7, 2025China soybean imports hit record July high on strong Brazil exports, US trade uncertainties | Reuters+6.4%
• Jan 25, 2018Soy source: Brazil's share of soybean exports to China hits record+0.4%
• May 29, 2019Local ports see 'dramatic hit' to soybean exports during US-China trade war+3.0%

After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jan 25, 2018Soy source: Brazil's share of soybean exports to China hits record-1.2%
• May 29, 2019Local ports see 'dramatic hit' to soybean exports during US-China trade war+2.6%
• Sep 26, 2018Graphic: Crop chop - China shuns U.S. soybeans amid trade war, turns to Brazil+1.6%
• May 13, 2019What Does the US Export to China? Soybeans Lowest in Decade - Bloomberg+3.6%
• Sep 24, 2019China's COFCO says soy exports from Brazil to slump on African swine fever crisis; corn to jump+0.5%