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Propelled by the US-China trade war, China is pursuing soybean self-sufficiency by boosting domestic production. The analysis argues that Chinese soybean demand will remain large but that China will become less reliant on the US over time.
The strategic shift reduces the long-run share of China's soybean imports going to the US, which weighs on US export prospects. Near-term price effects are limited because the trend develops slowly.
api-prod.stratfor.comJun 28, 2019After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
