
State-owned firms Sinograin and COFCO appear to be carrying out China's US soybean purchase commitments, while private and multinational crushers mainly buy Brazilian beans. Customs data show all 8.38 million tonnes of US soybeans imported in 2026 came through Beijing-registered companies.
Purchases concentrated in state buyers, with storage constraints and unclear measurement, make the 25 million tonne target uncertain and limit how much US soybean demand is driven by commercial crushers.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.