
The US dollar ended the week of July 19 cautiously higher but choppy, as expectations for a Fed rate cut rose and then eased. Haven demand rose on tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and Bank Indonesia cut rates as expected.
Dollar strength driven by geopolitical risk and Fed expectations affects the cost of dollar-priced feed inputs in Asian importing markets.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 487 past bullish macro events, WTI moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.