Gulf tanker incidents may raise shippers' costs, cut traffic

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jun 14, 2019Oil prices rise for second day after Gulf of Oman tanker attacks | The National+4.3%
• Sep 24, 2018Oil prices at highest levels in 4 years after OPEC says it won't raise output | CBC News+4.9%
• Mar 6, 2026Iran conflict boosts US Gulf oil prices to highest since 2020 | Reuters+16.6%
• Dec 19, 2023Oil rises 1% as Red Sea shipping concerns unnerve traders+2.8%
• Mar 9, 2018US strikes three Iranian oil tankers after Iran targets US warships+1.0%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 18, 2026Ag shippers face rising diesel costs, and farmers could share the bill | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.3%
• Jun 14, 2019Oil prices rise for second day after Gulf of Oman tanker attacks | The National+8.5%
• Sep 24, 2018Oil prices at highest levels in 4 years after OPEC says it won't raise output | CBC News+3.4%
• Mar 6, 2026Iran conflict boosts US Gulf oil prices to highest since 2020 | Reuters+18.2%
• Dec 19, 2023Oil rises 1% as Red Sea shipping concerns unnerve traders+4.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.