
Oil prices dropped sharply on Wednesday after UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei's comments that the UAE wants OPEC to increase production. US crude fell 12% to below $109 a barrel and Brent fell 13% to $111, the steepest one-day decline in nearly two years.
Expectations of higher OPEC output would ease the supply tightness that had pushed crude up, which pressures energy costs and weighs on biofuel-linked feedstock values such as soybean oil and palm oil.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Attributes the steep one-day decline to the UAE energy minister's call for OPEC to raise production, a supply-expectation shift.
UAE's call for higher OPEC output sparked the steepest one-day decline in nearly two years.
The steep crude oil drop on March 9 weakened the biofuel-linked value of soybean oil and set off the broader energy and vegoil unwind that carried into the following week.