
USDA's July supply and demand report left 2019 milk production unchanged but cut 2020 forecasts on slower expected milk per cow. The agency raised 2019 cheese and nonfat dry milk prices, lowered butter and whey, and reduced 2019 and 2020 export forecasts.
Lower 2020 milk output and cheese-led Class III price gains support dairy feed demand, while reduced export forecasts and weaker butter and whey are bearish for dairy byproducts used in feed.
After 237 past bullish report events, MILK moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.