Yara, the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer producer, forecasts a significant decline in global urea production capacity additions over 2019-2023, with the low point in 2020. Capacity is expected to recover only partly in 2021-2023.
Yara also flags that political tensions between the US, China and Iran could disrupt investment and trade.
Slower capacity growth against about 2.8% annual consumption growth points to tighter urea supply and higher prices over the next two years, raising fertilizer costs for grain and oilseed growers.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.