
A Farm Progress article reports that the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's July 31 30-day outlook calls for below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall across the Midwest in August. The 90-day outlook shows above-normal precipitation for Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas and eastern Iowa and Minnesota, and AccuWeather projects a significant decline in the 2019 corn and soybean yield from last year.
Wet, late-planted conditions and a projected yield decline tighten the expected US corn and soybean supply, which supports prices. Late-planted cotton is also at risk, which could affect cottonseed meal supply.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.