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A Rabobank annual outlook warns that geopolitical risks, including escalating tensions with Iran, a major urea and ammonia producer, could push fertilizer prices higher in 2026. The report says New Zealand farmgate prices should stay high, supported by solid export demand.
Tensions involving Iran threaten supply of nitrogen fertilizers, which could raise input costs for feed and crop producers. Stronger farmgate prices support demand for feed.
rnz.co.nzTe Reo Irirangi o AotearoaFeb 2, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
