
Canada's statistics ministry cut its durum wheat forecast by 23% to about 4.42 million tonnes, and COPA-COGECA confirmed a 9.5% cut in EU durum output. Weather in the main EU durum regions of France, Italy, Spain and Greece was unfavorable.
Spanish growers' group ASAJA expects the shortfall to lift durum prices.
Losing roughly a quarter of Canadian durum and about a tenth of EU durum tightens world durum supply and supports wheat prices. Lower durum output may also reduce the wheat available to feed markets.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.