
India's first advance estimate puts 2019 kharif foodgrain output down only 0.8 per cent despite a delayed monsoon, helped by good post-June rain. Rice output is projected down 1.74 per cent, while soybean and urad crops face possible further flood damage.
A smaller-than-feared kharif shortfall means less Indian demand for imports, but a lower rice estimate and soybean risk are modestly supportive for rice and oilseed-based feed prices.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.