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The USDA cut its global rapeseed/canola production estimate by 966,000 mt to 68.572 mmt, the lowest in five years, with a 350,000 mt cut for the EU and a 600,000 mt cut for Canada to 19.5 mmt. The agency also trimmed China's canola import forecast to 3.4 mmt, citing a shift to Canadian oil and meal, and global ending stocks fell to 6.444 mmt.
Tighter global canola supplies and lower stocks-to-use support canola and rapeseed prices, while uncertainty over where China will source its imports adds upside risk for competing vegetable oil and meal markets.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
