African swine fever has been confirmed in domestic pigs in Kenya and Ivory Coast, bringing Africa's total affected states this year to five. In Kenya, 15 pigs died on a farm in Uasin Gishu county in late August, and infection is suspected to have come from swill feeding and animal introduction.
ASF spread in Africa adds to global pork supply stress and supports demand for other proteins and feed. The volumes involved are small compared with Asia, so the effect on grain and meal prices is limited.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.