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Profercy reports Turkish imports of Iranian granular urea rose sharply in the first nine months of 2019 to about 815,000t including Omani-origin product, displacing Egyptian and Russian supply. Iranian producers are also selling into Brazil and NW Europe despite US sanctions.
Iranian urea redirecting into Western markets increases global nitrogen supply and pressures returns for other exporters.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.