
The December WASDE made few domestic changes, with corn ending stocks at 1.91 billion bushels and soybeans at 475 million bushels. US wheat carryout fell to 974 million bushels after lower imports and higher exports, and world corn stocks rose on a 6 million tonne increase in Chinese corn output.
The smaller US wheat carryout is supportive for wheat, while higher world corn stocks weigh on corn. Unharvested corn, about 1.09 billion bushels as of Dec. 8, adds uncertainty to crop size.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.