Will Shifting Market Factors Hibernate the Bear Market in Wheat?

After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Jan 22, 2021Farming News - Weekly round up of the Wheat & OSR markets+3.9%
• Sep 5, 2018Export Policies Shrink Global Wheat Supply, Increase Uncertainty - U.S. Wheat Associates+0.2%
• Jul 19, 2021Uncertainty in Asia forward buying of Black Sea new crop wheat - Fastmarkets-0.6%
• Apr 21, 2023Russian wheat trade falls silent as price floor leaves market 'broken'-8.6%
• May 16, 2022Explainer: What India's u-turn on wheat exports means for world markets+4.0%

After 37 past bullish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.

• Sep 5, 2018Export Policies Shrink Global Wheat Supply, Increase Uncertainty - U.S. Wheat Associates-2.7%
• Apr 21, 2023Russian wheat trade falls silent as price floor leaves market 'broken'-7.3%
• May 16, 2022Explainer: What India's u-turn on wheat exports means for world markets0.0%
• Feb 26, 2021WHEAT SCOOPS: Higher wheat prices may be here for a while-4.9%
• Jan 20, 2022WHEAT SCOOPS: Wheat prices are all over the board+2.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.