U.S. Soft Red Winter wheat production hit near-record lows in 2019 after several years of falling planted and harvested acreage, driven by poor weather across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. USDA data put the SRW stocks-to-use ratio at 38% for 2019/20, a four-year low, while HRW stood at 58%.
Tight SRW supply relative to demand supports Chicago wheat prices and widens the premium over HRW, while a weaker export competitiveness outlook for U.S. wheat could limit export demand.
After 56 past neutral report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.